{"id":40513,"date":"2026-08-06T15:26:38","date_gmt":"2026-08-06T18:26:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cebds.org\/?post_type=noticia&p=40513"},"modified":"2026-08-06T15:26:41","modified_gmt":"2026-08-06T18:26:41","slug":"el-nino-muito-forte-em-2026-quais-sao-os-riscos-para-o-brasil","status":"publish","type":"noticia","link":"https:\/\/cebds.org\/en\/noticia\/el-nino-muito-forte-em-2026-quais-sao-os-riscos-para-o-brasil\/","title":{"rendered":"A \u201cvery strong\u201d El Ni\u00f1o in 2026: what are the risks for Brazil and why should the business sector pay attention?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Official climate monitoring agencies confirm a high probability of one of the most intense El Ni\u00f1o events in recent decades by the end of 2026, with effects ranging from drought in the North and Northeast to excessive rainfall in the South, a scenario that demands heightened attention from companies and production chains.<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Brazil is expected to face one of the most intense El Ni\u00f1o episodes in recent decades by the end of 2026, according to several research institutes. El Ni\u00f1o is a natural climatic phenomenon associated with the anomalous warming of the surface waters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, capable of significantly altering global patterns of precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric circulation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although it is a recurring phenomenon, its impacts have become more severe in the context of climate change, putting pressure on water systems, production chains, and strategic ecosystems. Recent studies indicate that intense El Ni\u00f1o events can generate long-term global economic losses, simultaneously affecting water availability, agricultural productivity, energy, biodiversity, and social stability. This is what the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet), the National Institute for Space Research (Inpe), the National Water and Basic Sanitation Agency (ANA), the National Center for Monitoring and Alerting of Natural Disasters (Cemaden), and the Geological Survey of Brazil (SGB) have pointed out, which jointly published the first official monitoring bulletin of the phenomenon in 2026. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to this document, climate models indicate a probability of over 90% that El Ni\u00f1o will persist at least until the beginning of 2027, with a good chance of reaching the "very strong" classification, when the warming of the waters of the Equatorial Pacific exceeds 2\u00b0C above the historical average. The expectation is that the phenomenon will reach its peak between October and December, a period that coincides precisely with the beginning of the planting of the new Brazilian agricultural crop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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See also:<\/strong> World Cup and Sustainability: What do they have in common?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Distinct regional impacts<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

El Ni\u00f1o does not affect the country uniformly. While the North, Northeast, and parts of the Midwest tend to experience reduced rainfall, higher temperatures, and a greater risk of prolonged droughts, the Southern Region historically faces the opposite effect: excessive rainfall, waterlogged soil, and a higher incidence of fungal diseases in crops\u2014a pattern that has already begun to manifest itself, with rainfall volumes above average recorded in Rio Grande do Sul in July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For August, the forecast is for hot and dry days in the Southeast and Midwest, with relative humidity potentially dropping below 20% in states such as Mato Grosso, Goi\u00e1s, the Federal District, and western Minas Gerais and Bahia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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