It will be necessary for all sectors to work together to avoid tragedies, given the high-risk areas and the high probability that extreme weather events will continue to occur.

By Marina Grossi*

The joy of this year's Carnival holiday was shattered by yet another unprecedented tragedy involving extreme weather events. This time, the northern coastal region of São Paulo, especially the municipality of São Sebastião, was hit by heavy rains of unprecedented volume in Brazilian history, leaving, to date, a sad toll of more than 60 deaths and over 4,000 people homeless or displaced. Firefighters continue to search for missing people, while a strong outpouring of solidarity mobilizes society to raise donations for those affected by this latest catastrophe.

This isn't a one-off event. The water volumes that hit the cities on the northern coast of São Paulo surpassed the most recent torrential rain records and are the highest in the country's history. According to the National Center for Disaster Monitoring and Forecasting (Cemaden), accumulated rainfall reached 683 mm in Bertioga, 627 mm in São Sebastião, and 355 mm in Ubatuba within a 24-hour period. The accumulated rainfall in São Sebastião surpassed that of the city of Petrópolis, in the mountainous region of Rio, which had a 24-hour accumulation of 530 mm in 2022 – meaning this extreme event surpassed the previous record, which was set exactly one year ago.

Previously, the highest level had been recorded in Florianópolis in 1991, with a single-day accumulation of 400 mm. Within a year, the record was broken twice.

Science has been sounding the alarm. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned, in a report published last year, that the population affected by floods and landslides could grow by between 100% and 200% in Brazil under a global warming scenario of 1.5°C. Since the Industrial Revolution, the Earth's temperature has already risen by 1.09°C, favoring the occurrence of extreme weather events, such as the heavy rains recorded on the coast of São Paulo.

In Brazil, the situation is further aggravated by local geography, such as the proximity of mountains to the sea in these coastal regions, and social issues, as climate disasters disproportionately affect the poorest and most vulnerable populations. According to the Civil Defense, there are 14,000 high-risk landslides across Brazil, home to 4 million people. The risk of further tragedies, similar to those in São Sebastião and Petrópolis, occurring in a scenario of more extreme events is imminent.

In response to the disaster, public authorities mobilized quickly at the municipal, state, and federal levels, as did civil society organizations, which joined forces in a solidarity movement to provide emergency assistance. Now, unity among all sectors will be necessary to prevent similar tragedies, given the high-risk areas and the high likelihood that extreme weather events will continue to occur.

The business sector can and should contribute its expertise and partner with the government in offering solutions and technologies that mitigate and adapt to climate change. Several sectors of the economy are seeking to incorporate these variables into their business strategies. One example is insurance, an important segment for advancing the adaptation landscape: 57.1% of companies operating in this segment in Brazil already consider climate change when developing products and services, thus contributing to society's overcoming this enormous challenge.

The Business Council for Sustainable Development (CEBDS) convened its Leaders' Council, comprising 29 CEOs of large companies, and Marina Silva, Minister of Environment and Climate Change, in February to discuss how businesses and government can work to implement climate action, among other issues. These spaces can be expanded to develop solutions, whether in the areas of climate governance, carbon markets, energy transition, or green infrastructure, which is part of the set of nature-based solutions (NbS).

This particular strategy, which includes integrating solutions into urban planning such as reforestation of hillsides and riverbanks, the creation of wetlands, ecosystem-based adaptation to combat heat islands, parks, and green roofs, can contribute both to the resilience of our cities to extreme weather events and to the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions.

Businesses in this field can provide up to 37% of the reductions needed to limit global warming to 2ºC and are still profitable, with the potential to generate revenues of US$$ 17 billion by 2030, according to a study by the World Resources Institute (WRI).

The climate emergency is already perceived by citizens around the world as a matter of concern, as highlighted in a recent survey conducted by the Edelman Trust Institute, which involved 14,000 respondents in 14 countries. In total, 77% of respondents are concerned about climate change. In Brazil, only 39% of respondents believe the country is doing its part to combat the climate emergency.

In this context, civil society organizations are the most trusted on this topic, with 65% of Brazilians reporting them, followed closely by the media (52%), government (49%), and businesses (48%). Therefore, there is a low level of trust in the response of stakeholders to the climate crisis, which is becoming increasingly evident. Thus, a union of forces and purpose is more than necessary to reverse this crisis of confidence, provide swift and assertive responses, especially in the field of adaptation, and thus prevent tragedies like the one on the northern coast of São Paulo from continuing to disturb the sleep of Brazilians, especially the most vulnerable.

* Marina Grossi is president of CEBDS (Brazilian Business Council for Sustainable Development), an entity with more than 100 associated companies whose combined revenue is equivalent to almost 50% of Brazilian GDP