Official climate monitoring agencies confirm a high probability of one of the most intense El Niño events in recent decades by the end of 2026, with effects ranging from drought in the North and Northeast to excessive rainfall in the South, a scenario that demands heightened attention from companies and production chains..
Brazil is expected to face one of the most intense El Niño episodes in recent decades by the end of 2026, according to several research institutes. El Niño is a natural climatic phenomenon associated with the anomalous warming of the surface waters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, capable of significantly altering global patterns of precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric circulation.
Although it is a recurring phenomenon, its impacts have become more severe in the context of climate change, putting pressure on water systems, production chains, and strategic ecosystems. Recent studies indicate that intense El Niño events can generate long-term global economic losses, simultaneously affecting water availability, agricultural productivity, energy, biodiversity, and social stability. This is what the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet), the National Institute for Space Research (Inpe), the National Water and Basic Sanitation Agency (ANA), the National Center for Monitoring and Alerting of Natural Disasters (Cemaden), and the Geological Survey of Brazil (SGB) have pointed out, which jointly published the first official monitoring bulletin of the phenomenon in 2026.
According to this document, climate models indicate a probability of over 90% that El Niño will persist at least until the beginning of 2027, with a good chance of reaching the "very strong" classification, when the warming of the waters of the Equatorial Pacific exceeds 2°C above the historical average. The expectation is that the phenomenon will reach its peak between October and December, a period that coincides precisely with the beginning of the planting of the new Brazilian agricultural crop.
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Distinct regional impacts
El Niño does not affect the country uniformly. While the North, Northeast, and parts of the Midwest tend to experience reduced rainfall, higher temperatures, and a greater risk of prolonged droughts, the Southern Region historically faces the opposite effect: excessive rainfall, waterlogged soil, and a higher incidence of fungal diseases in crops—a pattern that has already begun to manifest itself, with rainfall volumes above average recorded in Rio Grande do Sul in July.
For August, the forecast is for hot and dry days in the Southeast and Midwest, with relative humidity potentially dropping below 20% in states such as Mato Grosso, Goiás, the Federal District, and western Minas Gerais and Bahia.
A phenomenon with a history of significant economic impact.
The El Niño events of 1997/1998 and 2015/2016, both classified as very strong, left significant marks on the Brazilian economy: prolonged droughts, reduced hydroelectric power generation, falling reservoir levels, and increased wildfires in vegetation areas more susceptible to drought. The 2026 event worries authorities precisely because of the possibility of comparable intensity.
Among the most sensitive sectors is energy: heavily dependent on hydroelectric sources, Brazil's energy generation in strategic basins could be impacted, with repercussions throughout the production chain. Agriculture is also a focus, as the phenomenon directly affects rainfed crops, those without irrigation systems, precisely at the beginning of the new crop cycle. Add to this an effect that reaches the consumer's pocket: the Central Bank already recognizes the inflationary potential of the phenomenon on the prices of fresh food.
Why does this matter to businesses?
Extreme weather phenomena These issues have ceased to be merely an environmental agenda and have become a direct matter of risk management, planning, and competitiveness for Brazilian companies. Water security, energy resilience, and the stability of agri-food chains are topics that are already at the heart of the agenda of the CEBDS Thematic Chambers, especially those on Water, Climate and Energy, and Agri-food Systems, reinforcing the importance of the private sector anticipating scenarios, and not just reacting to them.
Coordinated action between government, science, and the productive sector is identified by official bodies themselves as fundamental to reducing the impacts of the phenomenon on the Brazilian population and economy, a principle that is central to CEBDS's role as a facilitator between companies, government, and society.
