It is up to Belém to resume the path of gradual transition away from fossil fuels, approve a new number for climate finance and advance the adaptation agenda.
There are many consequences for climate geopolitics from the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, a campaign promise made by Donald Trump on his first day in office. In addition to the rhetoric of denial of the climate emergency, which is already underway, the current US president's stance has thrown a wrench into the game of cards on which diplomacy related to climate change is currently based. The world's largest economy, the US leads in per capita carbon emissions and is historically responsible for the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. With the challenge of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C, the primary objective of the treaty signed in Paris, increasingly distant, the withdrawal of this important actor from the scene makes the task even more Herculean.
Trump’s appetite for increasing the production of fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas, expressed in the slogan “drill, baby, drill,” may actually hide the fact that the United States, although relevant in the race for low-carbon technologies, is far from leading it. In 2024, the world surpassed the US$2.08 trillion mark in energy transition investments for the first time – half of which was allocated by countries in the Asia-Pacific region, with China alone accounting for an investment of US$818 billion, or 4.5% of its GDP – more than double that of any other economy and almost four times the US investment, which was US$338 billion, equivalent to 1.2% of GDP. The data is part of BloombergNEF’s Energy Transition Investment Trends 2025 study.
The previous year, China had already achieved the milestone of having 85% of its new power generation capacity from renewable sources. In geopolitics, there are no power gaps, so the second position in the ranking of investments in low-carbon technologies, currently occupied by the USA, could be surpassed by other countries willing to increase the investment in low-carbon activities. It is important to remember that, although record, the annual investment in these technologies is only 37% of the levels needed for the rest of the decade to achieve emissions neutrality, net zero, by 2050.
Therefore, putting the world on the path to climate ambition will require a very short-term adjustment, with the next 3 to 5 years being the window of opportunity for this. This increases the responsibility of COP30. The Belém conference represents for Brazil the chance to redefine the path of climate diplomacy, in order to foster concrete, short-term advances capable of accelerating the pace of the transformations we need.
After two climate COPs held in countries that are major oil producers, COP30 carries strong symbolism because it will be held in the heart of the Amazon and in a country with a predominantly renewable energy matrix. It is up to Belém to resume the path of the gradual transition away from fossil fuels, proposed in Dubai and forgotten in Baku, approve a new number for climate finance and advance the adaptation agenda. Brazil, which has everything to gain from decarbonization, must assume the role of catalyzing this mobilization that is currently scattered.
According to a study conducted by Net Zero Industrial Policy, from Johns Hopkins University, Brazil is among the four countries with the greatest capacity to lead the energy transition on a global scale. The study highlights seven areas in which the country has competitive advantages in this area: strategic minerals, batteries, hybrid electric vehicles with biofuels, SAFs (sustainable aviation fuels), production of equipment for wind energy production, low-carbon steel and green fertilizers.
The short term matters, and businesses, which are naturally more agile in decision-making, can contribute to leveraging and accelerating solutions to the climate crisis. Companies know better than governments that they will have to deal with a new context related to their dependence on natural resources and climate change. They know that it is necessary to mitigate and, even more, that it is necessary to adapt to this new normal of a world in which temperatures have already broken the dangerous barrier of 1.5ºC. There is a genuine outcry coming not only from a significant portion of consumers, investors and regulators, but from the entire society that is immersed in a major crisis of trust in institutions.
The recent Edelman Trust Barometer 2025 survey, conducted with more than 33,000 people in 28 countries, corroborates the perception that the population’s level of trust in institutions is low – 6 in 10 people are dissatisfied and resentful with the actions of governments, companies and the wealthiest segment of society. People fear for their jobs, and the survey states that business leaders have not made enough efforts to promote greater security.
The same is true when it comes to the climate crisis: 621% of respondents said they were unhappy with the way businesses were handling the issue. They said companies were not doing enough to address the climate emergency. Overcoming this resentment will require more action from companies, the study suggests.
COP30 will be an opportunity for the business sector to reinforce its commitment to climate ambition and to organize itself around an action agenda, as agreed in Dubai at COP28, based on four priority pillars: climate finance, energy transition, people and nature, and inclusion. Resuming this agenda and implementing it quickly is one of Belém’s tasks – as is rekindling hope in multilateralism and climate diplomacy. It will not be an easy COP, but the decisions and actions that emerge from it will dictate the direction and pace of the transformations that the planet needs.
* Marina Grossi is president of CEBDS (Brazilian Business Council for Sustainable Development), an organization with 27 years of experience and more than 110 large member companies
