By Marina Grossi for Estadão*
The first 100 days of Donald Trump's second administration, which concluded on April 29, leave no room for doubt: the United States' announced withdrawal from the Paris Agreement has been compounded by a rapid dismantling of the American climate agenda, which is having significant impacts on the global stage. In the first days of his new administration, the Republican has used a series of executive orders to reverse important environmental and health policies.
Trump's signature suspended federal subsidies for renewable energy sources, imposed tariffs on imported equipment such as solar panels and wind turbines, prohibited US states such as California and New York from setting their own climate-neutrality targets, deactivated federal aid funds for communities vulnerable to climate disasters, and further reduced the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) budget by 30%. He also ordered a review of vehicle emissions regulations to loosen environmental compliance standards.
The US president's unqualified support for fossil fuels was supported by the declaration of a "national energy emergency," and to combat it, the recipe is anchored in his catchphrase "drill, baby drill", which promises to increase oil and natural gas production. In practice, it authorized new exploration projects in previously protected areas in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico, facilitated licensing for domestic gas pipelines, and resumed construction of the Keystone XL pipeline, which transports oil from Canada to US refineries, which had been halted since 2021. Trump's offensive also targeted policies that encouraged low-carbon technologies from his predecessor, Joe Biden, such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). To this end, he ordered federal agencies to suspend disbursements of IRA funds, a move that has been the subject of legal challenges.
In April, the resounding sweeping trade tariff policy, the "tariff hike," arrived. Accusing trading partners of "robbing" the US for decades, Trump announced tariffs ranging from 10% to 49%, depending on the country, on imported products. The announcement shook financial markets and triggered warnings about the risk of a global economic slowdown, with a possible recession. The increased tariffs on green technologies such as solar panels, wind turbines, and electric cars—largely sourced from China—have the real potential to delay the energy transition, making access to these technologies more expensive. The inflationary pressure from these tariffs weighs on renewable energy supply chains, which could further discourage sustainable practices. Even American companies, then allies of the Trump administration, publicly criticized the administration for the tariff hike.
In this anti-climate policy, Trump ignores the US's historic role in the climate crisis, the robust scientific evidence attesting to the anthropogenic role in global warming, and the most tangible evidence of this crisis. 2024 was the hottest year on record, with a 1.55°C increase in global average temperature. The first months of 2025 will follow suit, with temperatures between 1.59°C (February), 1.60°C (March), and 1.75°C (January) above pre-industrial levels.
With the US out of the picture, the countries participating in the UN Climate Change Convention will have to make adjustments to maintain the ambition of the Paris Agreement, with more ambitious but also achievable national commitments (NDCs) that pave the way for high-quality growth. Ten years after the signing of the international treaty, however, the geopolitical landscape has changed. Multilateral relations are experiencing a crisis of trust, armed conflicts have intensified, humanity has faced a pandemic, and politics has become even more polarized. The largest global economies today are not the same as they were three decades ago, when discussions about who pays the climate bill began, and high interest rates pose an additional challenge. There are no power vacuums, so global climate governance will need to be redesigned to provide the necessary responses.
The discussions at COP30, the first to be held in Brazil and the Amazon, will have to reflect this new reality. The Belém conference represents a chance for Brazil to redefine the path of climate diplomacy, fostering concrete progress capable of accelerating the pace of transformations toward a low-carbon economy. The COP30 presidency, which called for a "global collective action" against climate change—inspired by the ancestral concept of Brazil's indigenous peoples— Motirō – , is proposing innovations to increase engagement, mobilizing a global coalition that integrates governments, the private sector, civil society, science, finance, and local communities in a joint effort for transformation.
The Brazilian government is also reinforcing its call for more ambitious climate commitments. On April 23, it convened a virtual summit with United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres to urge countries to submit revised NDCs by the September deadline, thus before COP30, and to ensure they contain robust targets for the 2035 horizon. The meeting brought together 17 participants—heads of state and government—from some of the world's largest economies, including China and the European Union, as well as from countries vulnerable to climate change. Guterres' message was clear: renewable energy is the economic opportunity of the century.
Brazil's mission at COP30 will not be easy. However, the country has before it the opportunity to make history. In Belém, we can draw the roadmap for a just transition, carbon neutrality, and the construction of a truly sustainable development model that preserves the planet for current and future generations—despite those who lead nations with their eyes fixed on the past.
* Marina Grossi is president of CEBDS (Brazilian Business Council for Sustainable Development), an organization with 28 years of experience and 120 large member companies.
