By Marina Grossi*
In an increasingly warmer world, we have been experiencing firsthand the risks that science calls tipping points, or points of no return. Two reports released on the eve of COP30 highlight the impact of human activity on the planet. Earth has already exceeded seven of the nine planetary boundaries, which are the indicators that measure whether the planet still operates under safe conditions to sustain life. Among them are the growing demand for fresh water, ocean acidification, and changes in land use, according to a study published by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
The Global Tipping Points Report 2025, compiled by 160 scientists from 23 countries and published in October, identified six points of no return for terrestrial systems that are under imminent threat from rising global average temperatures. The most sensitive of these concerns coral reefs: the mass loss of these organisms is considered the first point of no return already surpassed. Vulnerable to rising ocean temperatures, with a 1.2°C increase, corals have already begun an irreversible bleaching process, a phenomenon that causes the loss of algae living inside them, leading to their death due to lack of nutrients. Scientists estimate that 80% of warm-water corals have already been affected.
Global average temperature increases between 1.5ºC and 2ºC – the limits established as a target in the Paris Agreement – already put the Amazon rainforest at risk of becoming a savanna; these temperatures lead to the melting of glacial ice in mountain ranges, permafrost, and the ice caps of West Antarctica, in addition to altering the subpolar gyre current, responsible for carrying heat from the tropics to the North Atlantic, which regulates the temperature in Europe and North America. Another 2.5ºC of global warming is a sure ingredient for the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a set of ocean currents that distributes heat and nutrients throughout the planet.
The scenario is challenging, but the scientific community has also provided a recipe for how to avoid – or halt – the points of no return. And this necessarily involves containing climate change. Global greenhouse gas emissions need to be halved by 2030, compared to 2010 levels, and then reach net zero emissions by 2050. In the following years, a dedicated global effort will be needed to remove carbon from the atmosphere with the goal of stabilizing the temperature increase at 1.5°C or less by the end of the century. To accelerate this pace, reductions of 5% per year will be necessary from 2026 onwards, which can come from the massive recovery of forests and other ecosystems and from clean technologies.
Scientists are also shedding light on positive tipping points. Since 2023, there has been an acceleration in the adoption of clean technologies worldwide, notably solar photovoltaic energy and electric vehicles; and in initiatives to regenerate nature, along with the emergence of more sustainable consumption and production patterns in food and fiber supply chains. Another highlight is the growth of climate litigation, that is, lawsuits related to climate: mapping by the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia University (USA) points to 3,800 lawsuits in courts around the world. Positive tipping points can ripple across different sectors of society and the economy, the study states – suggesting that, yes, it is possible to overcome the brink of collapse in which humanity has placed itself.
Thus, catalyzing collective societal action – as evoked by the spirit of global cooperation proposed by COP30 – is fundamental to triggering more positive tipping points and giving policymakers a mandate to act. Only with a combination of mitigation and adaptation policies, companies committed to the climate agenda, and civil society mobilization can the world change its trajectory, moving from facing existential risks of planetary boundaries to seizing the opportunities brought about by positive tipping points.
* Marina Grossi is president of CEBDS (Brazilian Business Council for Sustainable Development), an organization with 28 years of experience and 120 large associated companies, Special Envoy of the COP30 Presidency for the Business Sector
