By Marina Grossi for Valor Econômico*
The world is hungry for energy. Different scenarios point to demand growth of between 11% and 18% by 2050, driven by record temperatures, fleet electrification, industrial consumption, and the expansion of the data center sector, which fuel the digitalization of economies and artificial intelligence technologies. In 2024, global energy demand grew by 2.2%, a faster growth rate than the average over the last decade. The increase was led by the electricity sector, with electricity demand increasing by 4.3%, well above the 3.2% growth in global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), according to data from the International Energy Agency's (IEA) Global Energy Review 2025.
Emerging and developing economies account for more than 80% of global energy demand growth, driven by population growth, the expansion of the middle class, and greater access to energy for vulnerable populations. It's worth noting that 675 million people still lack access to electricity. Furthermore, the relocation of manufacturing from mature to emerging economies also contributes to demand growth. Rich countries also saw energy demand increase by nearly 1% last year. The United States recorded the third-highest absolute demand growth in 2024, after China and India. The European Union saw its demand return to growth for the first time since 2017.
Balancing the world's growing appetite for energy with the necessary reduction in greenhouse gas emissions to achieve climate neutrality, or net zero, by 2050 is the challenge of this century. The energy transition is underway, but at a pace far below that needed to avoid the worst-case scenarios of climate change, the central objective of the Paris Agreement. This task, which will be widely discussed in Belém at COP30, is compounded by a turbulent geopolitical landscape, where ingredients such as armed conflicts, polarization, trade wars, and a crisis of confidence in multilateralism further thicken the pot. The climate agenda and decarbonization seem to fade in a scenario where countries are more concerned with their own energy security than with the transition.
What are the paths, then, to reconcile socioeconomic development, which requires energy to be viable, with decarbonization and global energy security? The International Energy Agency offers some clues. One is that the advance of renewables is inexorable: in 2024, 80% of the growth in global electricity generation came from renewable sources and nuclear power. Together, they contributed 40% of total generation for the first time, with renewables alone accounting for 32%. New renewable installations reached record levels for the 22nd consecutive year, with approximately 700 GW of total renewable capacity added in 2024.
The second, and perhaps most important, point is that the growth of energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is decoupling from global economic growth. Emissions growth slowed to 0.8% in 2024, while the global economy grew by more than 3%. This decoupling—the decoupling, in the English expression – indicates that decarbonization is already producing its effects: the implementation of solar photovoltaic, wind, nuclear, and electric vehicles since 2019 has contributed to avoiding the emission of 2.6 billion tons of CO2 annually, the equivalent of 7% of global emissions. And, in rich countries, emissions fell by 1.1% in 2024 – this may seem small, but it is similar to the same level observed 50 years ago, when GDP was more than three times smaller.
For developing nations, more than the choice of energy source itself, a discussion that should gain ground is the carbon intensity of different sources, measured in terms of tons of CO2e per unit of GDP or unit of energy use.
Many of these topics will be highlighted at COP30. Belém is starting from a point where the commitments of the signatory countries to the Paris Agreement (NDCs) will be renewed until 2035, and also has the mission of revisiting the thorny issue of the gradual replacement of fossil fuels, a postulate of COP28 in Dubai, which failed to make a single move in Baku at COP29. In Brazil, the oil and gas sector anticipated the discussion and, in early April, launched the study "Transition of Fossil Fuels in Energy Systems," produced by the Catavento consultancy in partnership with the Brazilian Institute of Oil and Gas (IBP) and the Climate and Society Institute (ICS). The study sought to chart a course for the energy transition within the oil and gas (O&G) industry. The study categorized oil and natural gas producing countries into three broad groups: Pioneers; in Transition; and Adapters – the first, diversified economies with less exposure to the oil and gas industry and greater readiness for transition; the second, less diversified economies with moderate exposure to the O&G industry; the third, economies largely dependent on O&G with less readiness for transition.
It's natural for countries to develop different trajectories to reduce emissions and achieve carbon neutrality to avoid the worst-case scenarios of the climate crisis. Today, talking about decarbonization involves considering the rearrangement of the global energy supply and demand chessboard. And while geopolitical turbulence shifts short-term priorities and casts a shadow over the sustainability of climate policies, the fact is that the energy transition is underway and needs to accelerate. And it will only be effective if it can also guarantee energy security: that is the way forward.
* Marina Grossi is president of CEBDS (Brazilian Business Council for Sustainable Development), an organization with 28 years of experience and 120 large member companies.
