By Marina Grossi for Valor Econômico*

From rice to coffee, cocoa, and olive oil, extreme weather conditions are driving up the prices of staple foods across the globe, bringing new inflationary pressures to a world already impacted by the pandemic, wars, and fiscal adjustment policies. This is what a study conducted by several European institutions, including Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, showed. The study analyzed 16 foods in 18 countries whose prices soared between 2022 and 2024 due to heavy rainfall, drought, or extreme heat.

The data reiterates what consumers have been experiencing when shopping. One example is coffee: global prices rose 55% in August 2024, a direct effect of the drought in Brazil the previous year; the Robusta variety, originally from the African continent, rose 100% in 2024 following record heat in Asia, especially in Vietnam. Rice rose 48% after a heat wave in Japan, which recorded the highest temperatures since 1946. In Mexico, fruits and vegetables became 20% more expensive after the 2023 drought, one of the worst in the country. Olive oil also suffered from the drought in Italy and Spain, with prices rising 50%. Cocoa, in turn, soared 280% due to heat waves in Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world's largest producers.

Another study, released by the FAO/UN on the eve of the Food Systems Conference, held in July 2024 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, reinforces that food inflation has outpaced general inflation since 2020. This phenomenon peaked in 2023, when food prices rose to 13.6%, 5.1 percentage points above the global average rate of 8.5%. Data from the report "The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025" (SOFI) have raised alarm bells about food security, as rising food prices significantly impact the budgets of the most vulnerable families.

A recent geopolitical factor also contributes to rising food prices in the United States and puts pressure on Brazilian agribusiness: the "tariff hike" announced by President Donald Trump, in effect since August. The measure imposes tariffs of up to 50% on products such as coffee, meat, and fruit. In the US, it increases the cost of living for consumers; in Brazil, it increases uncertainty for exporters already facing climate and trade volatility. Experts warn that the rise in the price of inputs exported to such a significant market could further pressure domestic prices, increase production costs, and generate unemployment in agriculture.

But there is good news. Between 2022 and 2024, Brazil left the hunger map, with less than 2.5% of the population experiencing undernourishment. This is remarkable progress compared to previous decades—between 2000 and 2002, 10.4% of Brazilians were undernourished. This progress is the result of a combination of policies to reduce poverty, generate income, and encourage family farming. Maintaining this level, however, requires constant vigilance and integration between combating hunger and addressing the climate crisis, as extreme events fuel food inflation.

Brazil has been driving this agenda internationally. At the G20 summit held in Rio de Janeiro in November 2024, the country launched the Global Alliance against Hunger and Poverty, designed to accelerate policies aimed at food security in the face of the worsening climate crisis. With COP30, the topic is likely to gain even more visibility: agriculture and food systems will be at the center of the debates, with discussions concentrated on November 10th and 20th. Agriculture and livestock are also among the six priority axes defined by the COP30 Presidency for the decarbonization of the economy, alongside energy, forests, mining, and transportation. The conference will also be a showcase for sustainable practices already adopted in Brazil and an opportunity to attract funding and scale impactful initiatives.

This topic gained prominence at COP28 in Dubai in 2023, when the Action Agenda for Regenerative Landscapes (AARL) was launched. This movement aims to catalyze US$1.4 billion for regenerative agriculture and sustainable land use across 80 agricultural commodity chains in 110 countries. The goal is to facilitate the transition to regenerative practices across 160 million hectares by 2030, increasing soil health, the climate resilience of food systems, and the livelihoods of 3.6 million farmers.

Brazil was chosen as one of the implementation scenarios, with two pilot projects in the Cerrado and Amazon regions of Pará, within the LAB (Regenerative Landscapes Accelerator Brazil). The program brings together public and private stakeholders to drive the adoption of regenerative practices by the end of the decade, based on three pillars: financing, viable metrics, and public policies. LAB is led by the Brazilian Business Council for Sustainable Development (CEBDS), the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), and the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), with support from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Food Supply (MAPA). It has already published two studies demonstrating the potential of regenerative landscapes. In Pará alone, the transition to regenerative landscapes represents a total investment opportunity of R$116 billion by 2040. Initiatives like this are part of the transformation of global value chains, with companies adopting decarbonization targets, requiring sustainably produced inputs, and aligning them with regulations such as the EUDR, the European law for deforestation-free products.

It's increasingly clear that plans to combat food insecurity must go hand in hand with addressing the climate emergency and biodiversity loss. Although the future points to a turbulent geopolitical landscape, marked by price volatility and a cost-of-living crisis, governments, businesses, and civil society must act in concert to ensure resilience and build a different landscape—one in which no citizen is deprived of food or the opportunity to inhabit a balanced planet.

* Marina Grossi is president of CEBDS (Brazilian Business Council for Sustainable Development), an organization with 28 years of experience and 120 large associated companies, Special Envoy of the COP30 Presidency for the Business Sector