Assessment of climate change impacts

The MudClima Project assesses the impacts of climate change on planning for the expansion and operation of hydroelectric activities. The initiative also provides for the establishment of resilience indicators on water security.

Climate Change Project (MudClima), a multidisciplinary research and development (R&D) project of the Institutional Project Portfolio of the Electric Energy Research Center (CEPEL) with the Eletrobras Companies. The initiative aims to narrow the gap between CEPEL's climatological and energy simulation/optimization models, through the development of methodologies for considering the impacts of climate change in expansion and operation planning, and in mitigation and adaptation policies. It also provides for the establishment of resilience indicators for the eligibility of hydroelectric plants for climate-aligned bonds. Already in progress and expanding its scope.

Continuous development and improvement, with annual products of methodologies and computational programs to narrow the gap between CEPEL's climatological and energy simulation/optimization models, currently encompassing the following aspects:

  • Elaboration and analysis, based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of the IPCC, of scenarios of inflows to hydroelectric power plants until 2100, including extreme events;
  • Development of methodologies for considering their impacts in the planning of expansion and energy operation, in terms of economy, safety and greenhouse gas emissions, with repercussions on mitigation and adaptation policies;
  • Development of strategies and actions to adapt to the effects of climate change in the social, ecosystem and business areas;
  • Development of a methodology for establishing indicators associated with adaptation and resilience for the eligibility of hydroelectric projects for climate-aligned bonds.

Percentage of achievement of milestones and goals, and of products developed (technical reports, methodologies and computer programs).

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