Year of climate extremes was also marked by important advances in tackling the climate crisis

A year of extremes: 2024 is set to end as the hottest year ever experienced on Earth. November was the 16th month in a 17-month period in which the average global temperature exceeded 1.5ºC in relation to pre-industrial levels. And, as the latest Global Assessment of the Paris Agreement made clear, the world is off track in reducing emissions to stay within the limits established by the treaty. For this reason, this was a year in which we experienced climate extremes and their impacts firsthand. In Brazil, we suffered tragedies linked to heavy rains, which affected an entire state such as Rio Grande do Sul, and also the effects of extreme droughts, which led to fires that left much of the country with unhealthy air, with immeasurable losses to our biodiversity. More than ever, we are being challenged by this “new normal” of the climate, and it is urgent to provide adequate responses to face the climate emergency and its consequences.

Changes are happening, but still at a pace that is not fast enough to curb the impacts of global warming. Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to grow and, as things stand, the world is headed for a global temperature rise of between 2.6ºC and 2.8ºC by the end of the century, according to the UN Emissions Gap report, released on the eve of COP29, held in Baku, Azerbaijan.

If business as usual continues, the Earth risks warming by 3.1°C, which would put our very existence at risk. It is still within humanity’s reach to change this trajectory, and to do so, it will be necessary to reduce global emissions by 28% by the end of this decade and 37% by 2035, the new milestone to be included in the Nations’ commitments, the so-called NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions).

At COP29, Brazil presented its new NDC, which is already aligned with the necessary review of commitments and presents the challenge of reducing emissions by between 59% and 67% by 2035, compared to 2005 levels. Another important advance, both at the global and local levels, was the carbon markets. The approval, in Baku, of articles 6.2 and 6.4 of the Paris Agreement, which had been under negotiation for nine years, gives the world the opportunity to implement an international market for the purchase and sale of carbon credits, with clear rules and the approval of the United Nations.

Here in Brazil, the National Congress approved, and the Executive Branch later sanctioned, the law that regulates the issue nationwide, establishing the Brazilian Emissions Trading System (SBCE). The carbon market has been a flagship of the Brazilian business sector since 2016. Other important advances were the Ecological Transformation Pact signed between the Three Powers, in order to guide the country's development and adaptation to climate change; and the legal framework for low-carbon hydrogen, which should help attract investments towards the energy transition and the competitiveness of Brazilian industry. The country also managed to significantly reduce illegal deforestation in both the Amazon and the Cerrado, a fundamental step towards reducing our emissions.

During our presidency of the G20, we achieved victories on three priority fronts: the fight against hunger, the sustainable development agenda, and the redesign of global governance. The leaders’ summit held in Rio de Janeiro in November saw a record number of heads of state and reinforced issues of interest to the global South, such as the commitment to combating the climate crisis and reducing poverty. We also approved the 10 High-Level Principles on the Bioeconomy, which provide guidelines for diplomatic and trade discussions on the topic, incorporating the bioeconomy into multilateralism.

These results were good harvests amidst inhospitable times, which helped reposition Brazil as a key player in defending the sustainability agenda. These are firm steps that should be consolidated in 2025, the year in which the country will host, for the first time, a UN climate conference, in Belém. COP30 is already raising great expectations and will turn the eyes of the world to the Amazon, with essential discussions to pave the path we want for the world in the coming years. One of the main challenges will be to contribute to the advancement of the financing needed for developing countries to conduct their energy transition, adaptation and climate justice. COP30 is already historic, and we must mobilize, as Brazilian society, so that a definitive process can take place towards the new development paradigm that humanity needs.