By the end of this decade, we have the opportunity to redefine the paths for development in the region, based on the new opportunities that the low-carbon economy brings.

By Marina Grossi*

As a guardian of solutions to both the climate crisis and biodiversity loss, the Amazon could be the great catalyst for the decarbonization of the Brazilian economy. Replacing predatory models of exploitation of the biome with a logic that preserves the forest standing, taking advantage of its potential in a sustainable way, could generate an increase in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of around R$40 billion per year, with the generation of 312 thousand additional jobs by 2050, as projected by the recent study. New Amazon Economy, coordinated by WRI Brasil in partnership with more than 70 renowned researchers.

The path to redirecting the Amazon’s development path is not simple, but it is possible, with the right incentives. According to the study, the transition cost to implement the new Amazon economy would be around R$2.56 trillion by 2050, equivalent to an investment of R$1.81 trillion of the national GDP per year, approximately R$0.81 trillion in addition to the current investment level. The study suggests investing R$659 billion in strategic land use, R$410 billion in changing the energy matrix, and R$1.49 trillion in infrastructure – the most significant amount. Thus, remodeling the Amazon economy would require incentives from the government, relieving the burden on activities linked to the Amazon bioeconomy, and also the creation of a green framework and taxonomy that guides financial flows in this direction. Another important step towards attracting resources is the regulated carbon market, a flagship of the Business Council for Sustainable Development (CEBDS) since 2016.

At least four economic segments – bioeconomy, infrastructure and energy, mining and agriculture – are fundamental to redirecting the Amazon economy and, in all scenarios, the business sector has much to contribute, with its capacity to innovate and enhance solutions. The bioeconomy is an activity with enormous potential for the region, currently generating a GDP of R$12 billion, and which could reach R$38.6 billion by 2050, based on the promotion and aggregation of value of forest products. The activity of restoring degraded areas, with an emphasis on so-called nature-based solutions, is also an important element of this equation and can help in the resilience of agricultural systems.

To remain relevant, agriculture must be deforestation-free and fully supported by the widespread adoption of low-carbon practices and production intensification. In the area of infrastructure, the solutions suggested include increasing the population's access to decentralized sources of energy generation, such as photovoltaic systems, and the use of water transport with hybrid engines to optimize logistics, with new uses for the extensive network of Amazon rivers. Finally, mining activity, which is already an important driver of the region's GDP, may gain new proportions as new strategic minerals are demanded in the energy transition scenario and in the construction of infrastructure for the low-carbon economy.

The economic decisions that will be made in the coming years must take into account that, despite its rich biodiversity, the Legal Amazon is home to 30 million Brazilians, who live with human development indicators that are still very unequal, whether in terms of access to education, health or basic sanitation. The planning of the region's new economy must place people at the center of decision-making and take into account the different faces of its population: riverside communities, indigenous people, quilombolas and their descendants, as well as residents of the urban Amazon, who face the daily life of metropolises and their challenges of housing, mobility and access to basic services. Local and ancestral knowledge, anchored in more than 12 thousand years of human occupation of this territory, must be welcomed and valued in the construction of this new economic reality.

September 5th was Amazon Day, an event launched in 2007 as a way to raise awareness about the importance and complexity of the biome. The date dates back to the creation of the Amazonas Province by Dom Pedro II in 1850, but it is relevant now that the Amazon is in the spotlight and will host COP30, the United Nations conference on climate change in 2030, the first to be held on Brazilian soil.

By the end of this decade, we have the opportunity to redefine the paths for the region’s development, based on the new opportunities that the low-carbon economy brings. Unlike in the past, today we know about the importance of the forest and the environmental services it provides, and we have a legitimate demand that the wealth generated in the region benefit its population, reducing acute social inequalities. There is still much debate to be had, but there is already a consensus that the world needs a strong, preserved, prosperous and resilient Amazon.

* Marina Grossi He is president of CEBDS (Brazilian Business Council for Sustainable Development), an entity with more than 110 associated companies whose combined revenue is equivalent to almost 50% of Brazilian GDP.